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Gastroenterology · Emergency Medicine

Acute pancreatitis prediction model calculator

Enter the published formula inputs below to calculate and interpret this score.

Clinical inputs

episodes

Allowed range: 0–20 episodes

Quick picks

0, 1, 2, and 3 episodes score the same count. Four or more episodes score 4.

days

Allowed range: 0–60 days

Quick picks

Under 5 days scores 0. Five days or more scores −1.

points

Allowed range: 0–10 points

Quick picks

0 through 3 scores 0, 4 through 6 scores 2, and 7 through 10 scores 3.

× ULN

Allowed range: 3–200 × ULN

Quick picks

At least 3 and under 10 times the upper limit scores 0. At least 10 and under 20 scores 1. At least 20 scores 2.

Result

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Clinical inputs

  • Prior episodes of acute pancreatitisAccepted range: 0 to 20
  • History of cholelithiasis, +2
  • Abdominal surgery in the prior 2 months, −2
  • Epigastric pain, +2
  • Worsening severity, +1
  • Days from pain onsetAccepted range: 0 to 60
  • Pain score at presentation (points)Accepted range: 0 to 10
  • Serum lipase multiple of the upper limit (× ULN)Accepted range: 3 to 200

Primary source

Jin DX et al. Prospective validation of a prediction model for the diagnosis of acute pancreatitis. JAMA Netw Open. 2024;7:e2419014. DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.19014. PMID: 38941094. Table 1 reprints the 2018 point model (Jin DX et al. Pancreas. 2018;47:871-879. PMID: 29975351). Prior episodes 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 or more score 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4. Cholelithiasis scores 2. Abdominal surgery in the prior 2 months scores -2. Epigastric pain scores 2. Worsening severity scores 1. Pain duration under 5 days scores 0 and 5 days or more scores -1. Pain 0-3 scores 0, 4-6 scores 2, and 7-10 scores 3. Lipase at least 3 and under 10 times the upper limit of normal scores 0, at least 10 and under 20 scores 1, and at least 20 scores 2. The total runs from -3 to 14. In 349 emergency-department adults, a score of at least 6 had sensitivity 81.5%, specificity 85.9%, positive predictive value 82.6%, and negative predictive value 85.1%. The harmonic mean of sensitivity and positive predictive value was 82.0 and the Youden index was 0.674, both highest at 6. A score of at least 8 in that cohort had sensitivity 56.7%, specificity 96.4%, positive predictive value 92.7%, and negative predictive value 73.1%. (2024)

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